Study: PA Faces $15 Billion in Climate Change Costs by 2040

Pennsylvania — Municipal governments across Pennsylvania face more than $15 billion in climate adaptation costs by 2040, or nearly $1 billion a year, to protect residents from hotter weather, heavier rain, and rising sea levels, according to a new study released today. 

Pennsylvania's Looming Climate Cost Crisis: The Rising Price to Protect Communities from Extreme Heat, Precipitation, and Sea Level Rise is the first-ever attempt to determine the costs Pennsylvania municipalities will face to protect infrastructure and communities from climate change.  

The Center for Climate Integrity, Resilient Analytics, and Scioto Analysis calculated the costs of adapting to eight climate impacts for more than 2,000 municipalities:

Climate adaptation costs from increased precipitation: $11.7 billion by 2040

• Increasing storm drainage capacity to avoid additional sewage overflows and flooding: $7.8 billion 

• Increased road maintenance due to increased heavy rain and heat stress: $2.98 billion

• Protecting against more frequent landslides: $935 million 

• Reinforcing bridges against anticipated climate wear and tear: $268 million 

Climate adaptation costs from hotter temperatures: Nearly $4 billion by 2040

• Planting trees to combat urban heat islands: $1.7 billion 

• Installing and upgrading air conditioning in schools: $1.23 billion 

• Expanding and operating cooling centers: $78.8 million 

Climate adaptation costs from sea-level rise: $547 billion by 2040

• Building coastal defenses to prevent infrastructure from rising seas: $547 million

The study made conservative cost estimates under a moderate climate scenario and excluded state and federal costs from the final climate adaptation estimate. 

Among the study’s findings: 

Climate change could have calamitous impacts on local budgets. Climate adaptation costs for multiple municipalities could significantly burden — or entirely consume — local budgets.

• Philadelphia will need to spend $3.3 billion to adapt to increasing heat, precipitation, and rising seas by 2040, or approximately $190 million per year. The annual cost of increasing storm drainage capacity — $110 million — is comparable to 96% of the city’s 2023 Department of Streets budget. 

• Hempfield, a Pittsburgh suburb of 41,000 people, would have to spend 59% of its $16.3 million annual budget — or about $9.6 million — on climate adaptations every year until 2040 to stave off climate impacts. 

The financial burden of climate adaptation will not fall equally on all Pennsylvanians. Using Census data, the study analyzed how areas more densely populated with vulnerable residents, such as those who are low-income or disabled, would be hit by climate adaptation costs.  

• Residents who live in rural, high poverty, and high disability municipalities will face higher climate adaptation costs — up to approximately $1,000 more per capita by 2040 — than the statewide average municipal adaptation cost. 

Municipal climate change costs will continue to fall on taxpayers — but officials could make polluters pay instead. The Center for Climate Integrity argues that major fossil fuel companies, whose actions and pollution have fueled the climate crisis, should be held accountable to pay their fair share of Pennsylvania’s municipal climate adaptations.

“Major oil and gas companies knew for decades that their products could lead to catastrophic environmental conditions, yet they intentionally obscured climate science and misled the public, while communities in Pennsylvania and across the U.S. paid the price for their pollution,” the study reads. “We’re in a climate crisis because Big Oil companies lied about their products for decades; it’s only right that they pay their fair share of the costs they have imposed on communities.”

A new poll finds that Pennsylvania voters support holding polluters accountable for climate change costs. 

• A recent poll of likely voters across Pennsylvania found widespread support for making climate polluters pay. 

  • 90% of respondents said oil and gas companies should be required to pay at least some of the costs to help local communities in Pennsylvania adapt to climate change.

  • 69% said they support suing oil and gas companies to make them pay their fair share of the costs that local communities in Pennsylvania face in adapting to climate change.

  • 69% also said they would be more likely to support a candidate who supports legal action to make polluters pay. 

• The statewide poll was conducted in July 2023 by Upswing Research.

Read the full study and individual climate cost projections for every municipality in Pennsylvania here.

Resilient Analytics has made available an interactive visualization platform using the full set of climate scenarios from this study.